Is New Jersey a Red State? Why It Won’t Stick
Is New Jersey a red state? Short answer: no. New Jersey’s voter math, dense metro geography, labor profile, and policy preferences make a lasting “true red state” shift very unlikely. Even when Republicans win here, it happens with moderation and split-ticket coalitions, not a wholesale red-state model.
The voter math says “blue by default”
Democrats outnumber Republicans statewide by ~862,000 registered voters. As of Sept. 1, 2025: Democratic ~2.53M, Republican ~1.67M, Unaffiliated ~2.33M. Unaffiliateds lean moderate and urban-suburban.
New Jersey has voted Democratic for president in every election since 1992. In 2024, Democrats still carried the state by ~6 points. House seats also lean blue (9D–3R after 2022).
Metro DNA: the densest, most urban state
New Jersey is the most densely populated state in the country, and its 21 counties sit inside large metro areas tied to NYC, Philadelphia, and Lehigh Valley. Dense, transit-connected, and suburban-urban voters tend to resist hard-right platforms.
Education, diversity, and immigration tilt policy views
The state ranks high on college attainment and has one of the largest foreign-born shares in the U.S. These traits correlate with more moderate-to-liberal positions on social policy, immigration, and science-driven governance.
Bachelor’s degree or higher: ~43.8% of adults (ACS 2023).
Foreign-born residents: ~23–24% (ACS 2019–2023).
Pew’s latest Religious Landscape Study shows a sizable unaffiliated share and a relatively low evangelical presence compared to red states, another predictor of non-red outcomes.
Unions and public-sector strength clash with “right-to-work” agendas
New Jersey’s union membership rate was 16.0% in 2024, well above the national average. Public-sector employment, K-12 systems, and large hospital networks give organized labor meaningful clout. Right-to-work pushes that define red-state policy would face steep headwinds here.
Guns and abortion: the policy center of gravity
Guns: New Jersey consistently posts among the lowest firearm death rates and has strict gun laws supported by metro-suburban majorities. Rolling them back to a red-state baseline would be unpopular and out of step with outcomes residents value.
Abortion: Statewide opinion and law strongly protect abortion access. A sweeping red-state style restriction would collide with established policy and public sentiment.
“Home rule,” taxes, and services don’t map to “small state, small spend”
New Jersey has 564 municipalities, intense local control, and heavy reliance on property taxes for schools and services. Red-state playbooks that slash state spending without re-engineering local structures run into reality fast. You cannot reduce costs without changing how 564 towns operate, consolidate services, or alter school finance.
Why the red-state model struggles in NJ
Urban-suburban majority, few rural voters
High education levels and diverse population
Strong unions and service-heavy economy (health, pharma, education, logistics)
Policy preferences that favor gun safety and reproductive rights
Fragmented local governance that resists rapid, top-down overhauls
Yes, Republicans can win — but only with moderation
GOP governors like Chris Christie and Christine Todd Whitman won statewide by appealing to the middle and avoiding a hard-red agenda. That blueprint is different from governing New Jersey as a “true red state.”
What would it take to “turn red” long-term?
It would require multiple cycles of realignment in fast-growing counties, persistent coalition shifts among unaffiliated suburbanites, and a platform tailored to NJ’s metro reality — not copy-pasted from rural Sun Belt states. Given current demographics and institutions, the baseline remains blue.